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ACADIA PHARMACEUTICALS INC (ACAD)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2024 delivered total revenues of $250.4M (+18% YoY) and sequential growth of ~3.5%; record quarterly NUPLAZID sales ($159.2M, +10% YoY) and strong DAYBUE momentum ($91.2M, +36% YoY) .
  • EPS of $0.20, swinging from a loss in Q3 2023 (-$0.40), with net income of $32.8M; EBIT margin held ~12.6% and net income margin ~13.1% on lower R&D and higher SG&A tied to consumer activation and CEO transition .
  • FY24 guidance tightened: NUPLAZID to $600–$610M (narrowed to high end), DAYBUE to $340–$350M (narrowed to low end), total revenue $940–$960M; R&D lowered ($280–$290M) and SG&A raised ($480–$495M) .
  • Catalysts: launch of disease-awareness/DTC campaigns (Ryan Reynolds-led) to drive PDP awareness and NUPLAZID funnel, Health Canada approval of DAYBUE, and sale of the Rare Pediatric Disease PRV for $150M (one-third net proceeds due to Neuren) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record NUPLAZID quarter ($159.2M) driven by real-world evidence, label clarification (use in PDP with or without dementia), and initial consumer campaigns; gross-to-net 24.9% in Q3 and FY24 GTN guided to 26–27% .
  • DAYBUE trajectory improved with 91.2M sales (+8% sequential), 923 paid shipments vs. 917 in Q2, persistency strength (60%+ on therapy ≥10 months; ≥50% beyond 12 months), and ~800 unique prescribers .
  • Pipeline/regulatory momentum: Health Canada approval for DAYBUE; ACP-101 (PWS) Phase III enrolling; ACP-204 (AD psychosis) progressing with plan to share Phase II and proceed to Phase III globally .

Quotes:

  • “We delivered $250.4 million in total revenues, putting us on track to reach an impressive milestone of more than $1 billion in annualized sales in 2025.” – CEO Catherine Owen Adams .
  • “We are excited about the early impact of this campaign... we believe [it] will help us accelerate growth for NUPLAZID in 2025.” – Brendan Teehan .

What Went Wrong

  • DAYBUE guidance narrowed to the low end ($340–$350M) reflecting slower-than-projected new patient starts despite improving discontinuation trends; management cites need to enhance efficacy communication and GI management consistency outside COEs .
  • SG&A rose to $133.3M (+36% YoY) on consumer activation and CEO transition costs; expense guidance increased to $480–$495M for FY24 .
  • EU master protocol friction for ACP-204 means a non-seamless Phase II/III path in Europe (still proceeding with Phase III after Phase II data), introducing modest timing complexity .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$205.8 $242.0 $250.4
Diluted EPS ($)$0.10 $0.20 $0.20
EBIT (“Income from operations”, $USD Millions)$15.2 $30.4 $31.6
Net Income ($USD Millions)$16.6 $33.4 $32.8
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$59.7 $76.2 $66.6
SG&A Expense ($USD Millions)$108.0 $117.1 $133.3
Cash & Investments ($USD Millions)$470.5 $500.9 $565.3

Segment Sales

MetricQ3 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
NUPLAZID Net Product Sales ($USD Millions)$144.8 $129.9 $157.4 $159.2
DAYBUE Net Product Sales ($USD Millions)$66.9 $75.9 $84.6 $91.2

KPIs

KPIQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
DAYBUE Paid Shipments (patients)871 917 923
NUPLAZID Gross-to-Net (%)33.1% 23.8% 24.9%

Notes:

  • Q3 YoY revenue growth +18% confirmed by press release .
  • Q3 margins (derived): EBIT margin ≈ 12.6% (31.6/250.4) ; Net income margin ≈ 13.1% (32.8/250.4) .
  • Net income includes $26.2M non-cash stock-based compensation expense in Q3 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
NUPLAZID Net Sales ($USD Millions)FY 2024$590–$610 (Aug) $600–$610 Narrowed to high end
DAYBUE Net Sales ($USD Millions)FY 2024$340–$370 (Aug) $340–$350 Narrowed to low end
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2024$930–$980 (Aug) $940–$960 Raised mid-point
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)FY 2024$305–$315 (Aug) $280–$290 Lowered
SG&A Expense ($USD Millions)FY 2024$465–$480 (Aug) $480–$495 Raised
NUPLAZID Gross-to-Net (%)FY 202426–28 (Aug) 26–27 Narrowed
Cash Balance ($USD Millions)FY 2024$575–$625 (Aug) $600–$640 Raised

Context: Initial FY24 guide (Feb/Q1) was NUPLAZID $560–$590, DAYBUE $370–$420, total revenue $930–$1,010, R&D $305–$325, SG&A $455–$480 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Trend
Consumer/Disease Awareness (PDP)Planning awareness/DTC given stabilized market Unbranded awareness and branded DTC launched; awareness low (hallucinations ~8% unaided), NUPLAZID awareness ~15% Early traction: 3.9B impressions, >200 placements; web traffic up; benefit mostly 2025 Building funnel; 2025 acceleration
DAYBUE Launch Dynamics1-in-4 diagnosed on therapy; focus on GI mgmt; net adds resumed Active patients ~900; 58% 9-month persistency; 2/3 new starts from non-COE segments 923 paid shipments; 60%+ ≥10 months; 800 prescribers; sequential +8% Steady state; deepening penetration outside COEs
Regulatory/Ex-U.S.PIP agreed; Canada NDS accepted; PMDA mtg planned Continuing ex-U.S. prep Health Canada approval; EU MAA targeted Q1 next year; PMDA discussions ongoing International expansion underway
Pipeline (ACP-101, ACP-204)Programs enrolling; strong interest ACP-204 EU master protocol friction; Phase II readout before Phase III complete Plan to release Phase II data and proceed; highlight safety/QT profile Advancing; regulatory alignment in progress
Macro/LTC & Community PDPMarket stabilizing post-pandemic; share gains New starts +4% QoQ; community patients at high Stable PDP market; consumer campaigns to drive 2025 growth Stable base; targeting awareness gap

Management Commentary

  • “Two growing franchises… now tracking to over $1 billion in annualized sales” and “financial strength… cash balance $565 million” – CEO Catherine Owen Adams .
  • “NUPLAZID… first-line therapy of choice for PDP” supported by RWE and label clarification; early DTC metrics strong .
  • “DAYBUE… successful launch; focus on efficacy communication and patient journey to grow beyond COEs” .
  • “Entered agreement to sell the PRV for $150 million; expect closing in Q4; owe Neuren one-third of net proceeds” – CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Seasonality/transition to 2025: improved reverification processes and more mature patient base should support steadier Q1 dynamics; still fewer appointments in January .
  • NUPLAZID prescriber/patient profile: consistent with Q2/Q3 prescribers; caregiver campaign aiding identification of subtle symptoms; no substantial age shifts observed .
  • DAYBUE responders and discontinuations: most early discontinuations tied to diarrhea/vomiting vs. lack of efficacy; restarts remain <10% of overall base .
  • Steady-state new starts and growth plan: efficacy storytelling (RSBQ translation), early journey support, and expansion beyond COEs to accelerate funnel .
  • Ex-U.S. DAYBUE: Canada private coverage first in 2025, public coverage takes longer; EU MAA targeting Q1 next year; PMDA dialogue ongoing .
  • DTC ROI for NUPLAZID: majority of benefit in 2025+; lifetime value extends beyond one year; prior DTCs yielded positive ROI .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue for Q3 2024, but access was unavailable due to SPGI rate limit. Without Wall Street consensus, we cannot determine formal beat/miss for the quarter. [Values intended from S&P Global; unavailable due to rate-limit error]*
MetricQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
Consensus Revenue ($USD Millions)Unavailable*Unavailable*Unavailable*
Consensus EPS ($)Unavailable*Unavailable*Unavailable*

*Estimates intended from S&P Global; retrieval failed due to rate-limit. Will update when access is restored.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • NUPLAZID franchise is inflecting: record quarter, RWE + label clarification driving share; consumer campaigns should be a 2025 catalyst; FY24 guide tightened to high-end range (cash-flow optimization intact) .
  • DAYBUE durability looks solid (60%+ at ≥10 months; ≥50% beyond 12 months); growth hinges on efficacy communication and GI management best practices outside COEs; FY24 guide at low end reflects near-term pacing .
  • Operating mix shift: SG&A investment rising for activation and ex-U.S. builds, offset by R&D lower vs. prior expectations; margins broadly stable sequentially .
  • Balance sheet strengthening: cash grew to $565.3M; PRV sale adds liquidity (net of owed share to Neuren) and flexibility for BD/pipeline .
  • Near-term catalysts: ex-U.S. DAYBUE (Canada now approved; EU MAA Q1 next year), ACP-204 Phase II data disclosure, and continued NUPLAZID DTC ramp .
  • Trading implications: absent consensus data, the setup leans to narrative/catalyst-driven moves—watch DTC engagement metrics, DAYBUE prescriber depth outside COEs, and updates on ACP-101 enrollment pace .
  • Medium-term thesis: two profitable franchises with international expansion and late-stage pipeline optionality; DTC/awareness likely to expand PDP funnel and underpin multi-year NUPLAZID growth .